PTPP - PATTERN ASCENDING TRIANGLE

PATTERN ASCENDING TRIANGLE IS A BULL PATTERN AS LONG AS PRICE DOES NOT BREAKDOWN BELOW THE BREAKOUT POINT.

PTPP BREAKOUT @740, USE THIS LEVEL AS A STOP LOSS, A PULL BACK TO TEST SUPPORT IS FINE, BUT PRICE CANNOT CLOSE <740.

1ST RESIST: 810
2ND RESIST: 860
3RD RESIST: 930

PTBA - POSSIBLE WAVE 4D UP

*ON 1ST JULY WE POSTED: PTBA - POSSIBLE WAVE 4C DOWN.
"WAVE 4C WILL START IF THE CHANNEL IS BROKEN. WAVE 4C MAY TURN INTO TRIANGLE ABCDE OR ZIG ZAG ABC."

*TRIANGLE TARGET @ 16350 & 16000.
*ZIG ZAG TARGET 15,300 & 14,700.
ABOVE CHART IS ASSUMING ZIGZAG ABC FOR WAVE 4.

*NOW BELOW CHART IS ASSUMING TRIANGLE ABCDE FOR WAVE 4. LOOK AT OUR TRIANGLE TARGET POSTED ON 1ST JULY @16350 & 16000 AND LOW PTBA REACHED 16300 ON 22 JULY:


TARGET FOR WAVE 4D UP @17100, SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY WAVE 4E DOWN TARGET @16600 (WILL BE UPDATED ONCE WAVE 4D COMPLETED).

A SPECULATION BUY COULD BE DONE NOW OR BUY AT WAVE 4E WITH TIGHT STOP LOSS @16300 BECAUSE IF THIS LEVEL IS BROKEN AGAIN, BIG WAVE 4 MAY STILL TURN INTO ZIGZAG ABC (CHECK ABOVE THE TARGET DOWN IS QUITE DEEP).

NOTE:
BOTH SCENARIOS ARE VALID AS LONG AS PRICE DOES NOT BREAK ABOVE 17650 DIRECTLY. IF PRICE BREAKOUT THIS LEVEL, WAVE 5-i MAY ALREADY START. WAVE 4 IS THE MOST HARDEST WAVE TO ANALYSE BECAUSE OF SO MANY POSSIBILITIES THAT COULD HAPPEN.

ADRO - ELLIOT BIG WAVE 4

MENURUT ELLIOT WAVE, HIGH ADRO 2250 PADA BULAN APRIL ADALAH TOP BIG WAVE 3. OTOMATIS SETELAH ITU MEMASUKI BIG WAVE 4.

*BEAR SCENARIO:
PENURUNAN LOW 1700 PADA TGL 25 MAY KITA LABEL WAVE 4A. REBOUND KE 2100 KITA LABEL WAVE 4B, LALU KENAIKAN 3X DI 2075 MEMBENTUK TRIANGLE KECIL YG APABILA DIBREAKDOWN AKAN DIMULAINYA WAVE 4C.

TARGET WAVE 4C MIN DI 1850 (IF WAVE 4 IS A BIG TRIANGLE).
TARGET WAVE 4C JG BISA DI 1660 (IF WAVE 4 IS A FLAT ABC).

*BULL SCENARIO:
BEAR SCENARIO HANYA BS DIGAGALKAN APABILA HARGA MAMPU BREAK KEATAS 2100. APABILA TERJADI, MAKA LOW DI 1700 SUDAH DIANGGAP SELESAINYA WAVE 4.

ALT WAVE COUNT OTOMATIS BERUBAH JADI WAVE 5-iii, STRATEGY BHSH-BUY HIGH SELL HIGHER DAPAT DILAKUKAN APABILA BREAKOUT TERJADI.

NICKEL & INCO - BOTH PATTERN ASCENDING TRIANGLE

*CHART NICKEL:
INCO (INTERNATIONAL NICKEL IND.TBK) BERGERAK MENGIKUTI HARGA NICKEL DUNIA. TERLIHAT DI CHART DIATAS, TOP & BOTTOM INCO SAMA SEPERTI NICKEL.

NICKEL & INCO BOTH FORMING PATTERN ASCENDING TRIANGLE READY TO BREAKOUT.

*CHART INCO POSTED ON 1 JULY (CLICK HERE FOR DETAILS):
WE SAID: "BULL SCENARIO MUST REBOUND AROUND 3400-3550", DAN INCO MAMPU REBOUND DI LOW 3600.

*DI CHAT BOX TGL 20 JULY:
eka: Ko, bagaimana INCO dan PNBN untuk besok?

WillyScofield: @Eka: INCO trigger buy break 3800,lgs psg SL 3650 & TP 4100. PNBN agak liar,Resist 1020 hrs dibreak dl br lebih yakin.

Details
2010-07-20

*CHART INCO UPDATED 22 JULY:

TIDAK BYK PERUBAHAN, SEMUA MSH ON SCHEDULE REBOUND WAVE C.

1ST TARGET: 4100-4200
2ND TARGET: 4400-4500.

CURRENT STOP LOSS 3775.

NOTE: ANTM & TINS BIASANYA AKAN MENGIKUTI PERGERAKAN INCO, TP PILIH SALAH SATU SAJA. OUR CHOICE IS INCO BECAUSE INCO IS ALWAYS A TOP GAINER & FAVORITE BANDAR FROM TIME TO TIME.

BJBR - WAVE 3 TARGET 1500 WOW

KAMI MENCOBA UNTUK MENERAPKAN ELLIOT WAVE UNTUK SAHAM IPO BJBR.

PRICE SUDAH BREAK HIGH WAVE 1 ARTINYA WAVE 3 SUDAH DIMULAI. WAVE 2 LOW TERNYATA HANYA 950, GAP 900 TIDAK TUTUP DAN TIDAK HARUS DITUTUP DALAM WAKTU DEKAT.

TARGET WAVE 3 DI SEKITAR 1500 WOW MSH 30% TO GO, WAVE 3 SERING TERBAGI LAGI DALAM 5 WAVE NAIK, JD KENAIKAN KALI INI TIDAK HARUS LGS SAMPAI 1500.

ADA 2 TARGET SEBELUM 1500 YAITU: 1280 & 1370.

APABILA ADA KOREKSI, GUNAKAN UNTUK BOW=BUY ON WEAKNESS.

CURRENT STOP LOSS 1060.

IHSG - WELCOME TO 3000

IHSG WELL DONE!! FINALLY YOU'RE ABOVE 3000, YOU'RE STILL THE WORLD'S STRONGEST INDEX RIGHT NOW.

ON LAST FRIDAY POST: "IF IHSG STAYS ABOVE 2940, WE MAY STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO GO ABOVE 3000".

LOW ON MONDAY IS ONLY 2948, NONE OF THE SUPPORT IS BREAKDOWN EVEN DOW -2.5% ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

UPDATED TRAILING STOP FOR TRADERS: CLOSE BELOW 2994.


*HOW FAR CAN IHSG GO? WE REMAIN ON OUR ORIGINAL TARGETS POSTED ON 18 JUNE AGO (CLICK HERE TO REVIEW):

ANTM - FORMING PATTERN ASCENDING TRIANGLE

RSI BREAKOUT & WILL TRY TO GO UP AREA ABOVE 70 TOGETHER WITH PRICE RALLY.

1ST JOB FOR ANTM IS TO BREAKOUT PATTERN ASCENDING TRIANGLE, BREAKOUT CONFIRM IF CLOSE ABOVE 2050 & SHOULD STAY ABOVE THIS LEVEL.

1ST TARGET 2125
2ND TARGET 2250
GAP TARGET 2325

CURRENT STOP LOSS 1970

AALI & LSIP- JULY - 20 2010

TLKM - PATTERN ASCENDING TRIANGLE & ELLIOT WAVE

*DAILY CHART:
TLKM IS FORMING PATTERN ASCENDING TRIANGLE, BREAKOUT LEVEL @8050. PRICE SHOULD CONTINUE RALLY AFTER BREAKOUT. IF NOT & IF CLOSE BELOW 7900 AGAIN, IT WILL BECOME A FALSE BREAKOUT.

HIGH OF PATTERN 8050 - LOW OF PATTERN 6950 = 1100.
TARGET OF PATTERN = 8050 + 1100 = 9150.

*WEEKLY CHART:
-TLKM BULL WAVE SHOWN IN GREEN COLOUR WAVE & LINE. CURRENT REBOUND SHOULD BE WAVE 3-iii-1 OF BIG WAVE 3-iii, LATER IN FUTURE WILL CONFIRM BY BREAKING UP 10,350.

-TLKM BEAR WAVE SHOWN IN RED COLOUR WAVE & LINE START WITH ALT=ALTERNATIVE WAVE. CURRENT REBOUND SHOULD BE WAVE C2. AFTER THAT, WAVE C3 WILL CONFIRM BY BREAKING DOWN 6950.

ONE IMPORTANT THING FOR ALL ELLIOT WAVE'S TRADERS, YOU MUST KEEP IN MIND, THERE'S ALWAYS ALTERNATIVE WAVE IN ELLIOT WAVE.

GOOD THING IS FOR TLKM BOTH BULL & BEAR WAVE COUNT POINTING TO A REBOUND WITH TARGETS AROUND 8650 & 9050.

IHSG - UPDATED 16 JULY 2010

*CHART IHSG POSTED ON 2 JULY:
"THERE'S STILL A CHANCE FOR IHSG TO FINISH WAVE C5. THIS SCENARIO IS VALID AS LONG AS PRICE DOES NOT BREAKDOWN SUPPORT 2823."
SUPPORT 2823 DOES NOT BREAKDOWN, PRICE SIDEWAYS UNTIL 8 JULY.

*CHART IHSG UPDATED 16 JULY:
MACD POINTING UP AT 9 JULY FOLLOWED BY A GOLDEN CROSS AT HIGHER LOW LEVEL. PRICE MANAGES TO GO UP ABOVE C3, BUT NOT YET BREAK HIGH OF WAVE 5-iii.

IS C5 FINISHED ALREADY? NOBODY CAN ANSWER IT NOW. TRUNCATION IS POSSIBLE AS WE MENTION EARLIER, BUT WE NEED A CONFIRMATION FIRST.

US DOW CLOSE -2.5%, WE EXPECT A GAP DOWN ON MONDAY OPENING, WATCH CAREFULLY THESE 2 NEW SUPPORTS LEVEL @2940 & 2844.

A BREAKDOWN (CLOSE BELOW) FROM EACH ABOVE SUPPORT WOULD SIGNAL ANOTHER CORRECTION. OTHERWISE (IF IHSG STAYS ABOVE 2940), WE MAY STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO GO ABOVE 3000.

BTEL - SUPPORT & RESISTANCE

BTEL STRONG RESIST LEVEL @165, PRICE HAD FAILED MANY TIMES TO BREAK & STAY ABOVE THIS LEVEL.

1ST SUPPORT @135.
2ND SUPPORT @120.
3RD SUPPORT @100.
SUPPORT OF HELL (SUPPORT NERAKA) @50.

BTEL LOWEST PRICE IS 50, THERE'S NO WAVE IDENTIFIED YET FOR BTEL, SO BTEL IS FREE TO FALL DOWN TO 50 IF THE ABOVE SUPPORTS ARE BROKEN ONE BY ONE. REMEMBER, THE OTHER B7 GROUP, BNBR IS ALREADY @5O NOW.

LSIP - SUPPORT & RESISTANCE

*WEEKLY CHART:

*DAILY CHART:

LSIP AFTER BREAKDOWN UPTREND CHANNEL (SEE WEEKLY CHART), REBOUND TO RESIST 8750, MAKING DOUBLE TOP AND BREAKDOWN NECKLINE 7900 (SEE DAILY CHART).

PRICE ALSO BREAKDOWN MA 60 WEEKLY.

TARGET DOWN TO AREA SUPPORT 6700-7000.

INDY - HOW FAST CAN YOU GO?

BANDINGKAN MA 60 WEEKLY INDY DENGAN ELSA, JELAS SEKALI HARGA INDY SELALU MAMPU REBOUND (6X) KETIKA MENYENTUH MA 60 WEEKLY.

SELAMA SUPPORT 2800 BERTAHAN, INDY AKAN MENCOBA BREAK 1 PER 1 RESISTNYA MULAI DARI 3150, 3275 & FINALLY ALL TIME HIGH 3600.

ELSA - WEEKLY WAVE SIDEWAYS ABC

MA 60 WEEKLY USUALLY ACTS AS A GOOD SUPPORT, BUT IF BREAKDOWN, IT WILL BECOME A GOOD RESISTANCE AS WELL.

CURRENTLY ELSA PRICE IS BELOW MA 60 WEEKLY, NOT A GOOD TREND ACTUALLY.

ELSA SUPPORT @300-310, WE SHOULD SEE A MINOR REBOUND TO WAVE B, AFTER THAT IT MAY GO DOWN TO WAVE C IF THE TREND IS NOT CHANGING.

ASII - READY TO MAKE NEW HIGH AGAIN

RSI & PRICE BOTH CONFIRM BREAKOUT TRIANGLE AT THE SAME TIME.

*DAILY TARGET 51,000-51500.
*WEEKLY TARGET 53400.
*MONTHLY TARGET 55250.

STOP LOSS < 47000.

BLTA - SOMETHING IS DEFINATELY WRONG WITH YOU

*ON DECEMBER 2007, BLTA REACHED HIGHEST PRICE @2700 TOGETHER WITH IHSG TOP @2800.

*NOW JULY 2010, IHSG MAKES NEW HIGH @2900 & BLTA MAKES NEW LOW @265.

SOMETHING IS DEFINATELY WRONG WITH BLTA. WE DON'T NEED TO FIND OUT "WHY" BECAUSE A CHART TELLS EVERYTHING.

BDMN - SUPPORT & RESISTANCE

BDMN CURRENT SUPPORT @5000 AND RESIST @5500. IF PRICE CAN BREAKOUT 5500, MOSTLY LIKELY WILL TRY TO BREAK NEXT RESIST 5850.

PGAS - SUPPORT & RESISTANCE

PGAS 3900 IS A GOOD NUMBER FOR BOTH SUPPORT & RESISTANCE. AS LONG AS PRICE > 3900, PGAS WILL TRY TO TEST RESIST 4200 & ALL TIME HIGH RESIST 4400.

IF SUPPORT 3900 BREAKDOWNS (PRICE CLOSE < 3900), TARGET WILL MOSTLY LIKELY GO DOWN TO 2ND SUPPORT AT 3625.

ASRI- JULY 08, 2010

IPO - BANK JABAR, INDOPOLY, EVERGREEN

3 HAL PENTING YG HARUS DIPERHATIKAN UNTUK SAHAM IPO:
1. KINERJA & SEKTOR PERUSAHAAN.
LAPORAN KEUANGAN YG BAGUS & STABIL IS A GOOD NEWS & SEKTOR PERUSAHAAN YG LAGI BOOMING/UPTREND SGT MEMPENGARUHI.
Contoh Berita: Jelang IPO, Laba Bersih Indopoly Naik 126,5% Per Mei 2010.
Contoh Sektor: BANKING di IHSG masih membuat New High Price terus.

2. APAKAH IPO SAHAM TERSEBUT MENGALAMI OVERSUBCRIBE?
SEMAKIN TINGGI OVERSUBCRIBE BERARTI SEMAKIN BANYAK PEMINAT YG TERTARIK UNTUK MENJADI INVESTOR DI PERUSAHAAN YG AKAN IPO TERSEBUT.
Contoh Berita:
- Saham Skybee Tbk Oversubscribe 5 Kali Lipat.
- Bank Jabar Banten Tbk mengalami Oversubcribe 4 kali lipat.

3. TUJUAN DANA HASIL IPO.
HASIL IPO UNTUK EXPANSION IS GOOD, HASIL IPO UNTUK PAY DEBT IS NOT GOOD.
Contoh Berita:
- Hasil IPO Indopoly Tbk untuk pengembangan organik seperti pembangunan pabrik dan membeli mesin.
- Evergreen Tbk plans to use Rp 70 billion from the IPO proceed to pay debt to Penzoil Enterprize Ltd.

BUMI - SUPPORT, RESIST, CHANNEL, RSI & ELLIOT WAVE

*BUMI WEEKLY CHART:
IT'S VERY CLEAR BUMI IS IN A DOWNTREND CHANNEL NOW. SUPPORT 2150 IS BROKEN, ACCORDING TO DOW THEORY, SUPPORT 2150 NOW BECOMES RESISTANCE!

BE PATIENT & WAIT UNTIL INDICATOR RSI GOES DOWN BELOW 30 OVERSOLD AREA & REVERSE TO UPTREND. AREA SPECULATION BUY: 1050-1200.

*BUMI DAILY ELLIOT WAVE DETAILS:
FROM THE TOP 3475, BUMI IS GOING DOWN IN BIG WAVE ABC CORRECTION.

-WAVE A IS A ZIGZAG 5 WAVE DOWN (A1-A5) TO 2100 ON 10 NOV 2009.
-WAVE B IS AN EXPANDED FLAT 3 WAVE UP (ABC) TO 3000 ON 11 JAN 2010.
-WAVE C IS ANOTHER ZIGZAG 5 WAVE DOWN (C1-C5) TO.......

CURRENTLY BUMI IS STILL AT C4, FORMING ANOTHER TRIANGLE LIKE C2. A BREAKDOWN BELOW 1690 WILL CONFIRM A START OF C5.

FINAL TARGET DOWN (WITH BANDAR'S ATTITUDE):
-MIN 1500 (IF BANDAR IS VERY NICE & WANT TO PLAY FAST).
-MEDIUM 1200 (IF BANDAR IS JUST FINE).
-WORST 1050 (IF BANDAR IS IN BAD MOOD).

SKYB - Saham Skybee Tbk Oversubscribe 5 Kali Lipat!!

IPO NEWS: PT Skybee Tbk akan mencatatkan saham perdana di papan pengembangan Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) dengan kode saham SKYB pada Rabu (7/7).

Perseroan melepas saham perdana ke publik sekitar 235 juta saham. Harga penawaran saham perdana sebesar Rp375 dengan nilai nominal Rp100. Dana yang berhasil dihimpun hasil penawaran umum sekitar Rp88,125 miliar. Yang bertindak sebagai penjamin emisi PT Lautandhana Securindo.

PT Skybee Tbk memiliki kapitalisasi pasar Rp219,375 miliar. P/E Ratio industri per 5 Juli 2010 sekitar 8,61 kali dan PBV industri per 5 Juli sekitar 2,85 kali.

Perseroan yang bergerak di bidang usaha teknologi, multimedia dan telekomunikasi ini mencatatkan laba (rugi) bersih sekitar Rp3,361 miliar dan pendapatan sekitar Rp288,869 miliar pada 2009. [mel/cms]

BKSL - 6 JUNE

DOID - ELLIOT WAVE & AREA SPEKULASI BUY

DOID IS FORMING PATTERN FALLING WEDGES, IT'S STILL FAR FROM BULLISH MODE. HOWEVER, WE MIGHT HAVE A CHANCE TO SET UP A GOOD TRADING PLAN HERE BASE ON ELLIOT WAVE.

*ELLIOT WAVE COUNT IN RED COLOUR IS A BEAR WAVE SCENARIO. WE EXPECT A REBOUND OF WAVE 4 ABC TO TARGET 1190. AREA SPECULATION BUY @ B = 830-890 WITH STOP LOSS 750.

*ALT ELLIOT WAVE COUNT IN GREEN COLOUR IS A BULL WAVE SCENARIO. IF THIS PLAYS OUT, THEN TARGET IS ABOVE 1190.

*TRADING PLAN:
BUY 830
TARGET 1190 (+43%)
STOP LOSS 750 (-10%)
RISK VS REWARD RATIO = 1 : 4

CTRA- JULY 2, 2010

IHSG - POSSIBLE WAVE 5-V TRUNCATION (WORST SCENARIO)

BULL MARKET TRUNCATION TERJADI KETIKA WAVE 5 TIDAK BERHASIL BREAK KEATAS HIGH WAVE 3.

MELIHAT KONDISI US MARKET YG MENGKHAWATIRKAN, KAMI HARUS MEMBERIKAN WORST SCENARIO UNTUK IHSG, YAITU KEMUNGKINAN TERJADINYA TRUNCATION DI WAVE 5-V (IT'S A RARE CASE ACTUALLY).

PADA POSTINGAN MINGGU LALU:
"SUPPORT TO WATCH 2890, IN CASE IHSG CLOSE LESS THAN 2890, IHSG MIGHT TURN INTO A MORE COMPLEX WAVE".

MINGGU INI IHSG CLOSE 2871 BELOW SUPPORT 2890, BULL SEMENTARA AKAN ISTIRAHAT DULU. MINGGU DEPAN TREND CENDERUNG SIDEWAYS-DOWN.

NEXT SUPPORT TO WATCH 2823, ANY TRIGGER BELOW THIS LEVEL WILL DRAG IHSG TO A DEEPER CORRECTION TO 2ND SUPPORT 2685.


*POSSIBLE BULL SCENARIO ON DAILY CHART:
THERE'S STILL A CHANCE FOR IHSG TO FINISH WAVE C5. THIS SCENARIO IS VALID AS LONG AS PRICE DOES NOT BREAKDOWN SUPPORT 2823.

MACD DAILY DEAD CROSS, BE PATIENT & WAIT MACD TO GO DOWN OVERSOLD AREA AGAIN.

HAPPY WEEKEND
GBU ALL
WILLY SCOFIELD

WIKA - SUPPORT & RESISTANCE

WBB SHOWS BULL IS LOSING POWER FAST ENOUGH. A CORRECTION DOWN SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS.

FOR DAY TRADE, YOU MAY HIT & RUN FAST AT 1ST & 2ND SUPPORT, ONLY BUY & HOLD AT THE STRONGEST 3RD SUPPORT (SHOWN IN CHART).

INCO - BULL & BEAR SCENARIO

INCO IS CLEARLY IN MEDIUM DOWNTREND, THE ONLY BULL SCENARIO IS A POSSIBLE REBOUND WAVE ABC BEFORE BREAKING DOWN 3200 TO CONTINUE DOWNTREND MOVE TO 2700.

AS FOR BEAR SCENARIO, BULL DOES NOT COME OUT AROUND 3400-3550 & BEAR MANAGES TO PUSH PRICE BELOW 3200 DIRECTLY, THEN 2700 SHOULD BE REACHED FASTER.

PTBA - POSSIBLE WAVE 4C DOWN

PTBA IS IN BIG WAVE 4, POSSIBLE WAVE DIVIDES INTO 4A, 4B & 4C DOWN BEFORE GOING UP TO FINAL WAVE 5.

WAVE 4C WILL START IF THE CHANNEL IS BROKEN. WAVE 4C MAY TURN INTO TRIANGLE ABCDE OR ZIG ZAG ABC.

*TRIANGLE TARGET @ 16350 & 16000.
*ZIG ZAG TARGET 15,300 & 14,700.

TINS - BULL & BEAR SCENARIO

*BULL SCENARIO MUST REBOUND AROUND 2000 OR LATEST 1900. IF THIS HAPPENS, WAVE 5-V TINS WILL GO ABOVE 2825.

*BEAR SCENARIO (ALT WAVE IN RED COLOUR), IF BREAKDOWN SUPPORT LINE OR BREAKDOWN 1780, WAVE C DOWN WILL CONFIRM TO START WITH TARGET AROUND 1600.

S&P500, JUNE 30 2010

TOP REVERSAL S&P500 -2007, 5 WAVE COUNT DOWN


AND TOP REVERSAL 2010 ? 5 WAVE DOWN COUNT DOWN AGAIN?
WILL THE HISTORY OF 2008 REPEATS AGAIN IN 2010?

AALI - WAVE 5 DOWN

DON'T TRY TO CATCH A FALLING KNIFE!

AALI Wave 4 Symmetrical Triangle abcde has completed, Wave 5 Down has started with breaking down the triangle. Target Down Wave 5 is around 16,600 & 15,300.

A Trigger Buy will appear later if MACD makes Divergence: When Price Makes New Low, But MACD Golden Cross at Higher Low Level.

BBTN- JULY, 1 2010

BBKP - TRYING HARD TO BREAK ALL TIME HIGH

BBKP nampak berusaha keras untuk mencoba Break All Time High bulan Nov 2006 @750. Weekly Chart diatas mampu naik dengan 6 Candles Hijau berturut2 dalam 6 minggu. Be Carefull jika Candle minggu depan ditutup merah.

1st Target: 690
2nd Target: 730
3rd Target: 800

1st Support: 640
2nd Support: 570